DW: Ukrainian gas transit – to be or not to be?

Difference between the probable maximum and minimum demand for gas in Europe in 10 years is about 150 billion cubic meters. It’s big risk for Gazprom to build new export pipes in such circumstances, Evlalia Samedova writes for the German edition of DW.

The relations between Russia and Europe in the gas sphere "have moved from strategic partnership to a normal commercial interaction, weighed down by political differences". This is stated in a September study by experts of the Energy Research Institute (ERI) of the RAS and the Institute of Energy Economics. Authors of the report propose several development scenarios for the period till 2025. Rejection of the Ukrainian transit at that time became one of the most painful issues.

Three scenarios till 2025

The study, entitled "The gas market in Europe: lost illusions and timid hope", contains three scenarios for the next 10 years. The first - the basic one - assumes a gradual recovery in the demand for gas in Europe from 2015 after a noticeable drop. If in 2010 the consumption was 556 billion cubic meters, in 2014 - only 428 billion, by 2025 it is projected to be 495 billion cubic meters. The share of Russia in this case will be 124 billion cubic meters.