Gas export price to fall below $200 per 1 thousand cubic meters
The Russian Economy Ministry has proposed a very pessimistic vision of the future of the gas industry in the coming years. Against the background of the fact that oil prices won’t rise above $60 per barrel of Urals in 2018, as the Ministry believes, the export of Gazprom’s gas will be carried out at a record low average price - $162-194 per 1 thousand cubic meters. Experts found the forecast too conservative: the value of the export gas can be higher if it is not critically affected by new volumes of LNG on the market.
Today at a meeting of the Government the main parameters of the socio-economic development for 2016-2018 will be considered, made by the Ministry of Economy. The Ministry doesn’t expect a significant improvement in the situation in the oil and gas industry in the coming three years. Thus, according to its calculations, in 2016, the price of oil will remain at the level of 2015 - $50 per barrel of Urals (in 2014, it was $98), in the next two years it will increase to $55 and $60 per barrel, respectively. At the same time, the Economy Ministry forecasts the average export price of natural gas in 2016 at the record low level - $162 per 1 thousand cubic meters (in 2014, it was $351, the assessment of 2015 is $237), and in 2017-2018 - $184 and $194 per 1 thousand cubic meters respectively. Even in the crisis year of 2009, the average export price of Gazprom was $286 per 1 thousand cubic meters.
